Will the Scottish team at last break their All Blacks hoodoo?
Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand
Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh Date: this weekend Kick-off: 3:10 PM GMT
Things were simpler then. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland.
Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.
The man from Pathe News almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly and somewhat optimistically. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."
Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.
A few seasons after, New Zealand beat the Scots. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Three years further on, identical outcome. Another five-year gap and, indeed, you know the rest.
Recent History
Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. From Christchurch to Dunedin, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but not the outcomes.
In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.
Squad Updates
In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have reduced to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.
Via their excellence, their power, their chicanery, they get the job done.
As match day approaches where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.
Key Absences
Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.
Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.
During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.
Replacement Concerns
They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his Test career consists of limited game time.
Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he can match New Zealand's standard.
Coaching Choices
Townsend has sprung surprises, some logical, some puzzling. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.
The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.
Historical Context
Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.
That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.
By the Numbers
Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches going back three years, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.
They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.
Required Performance
Against Scotland in 2022, New Zealand scored early in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.
The lesson here is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.
In recent years, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks.
Final Analysis
Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.
With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.
Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; 120 years is enough of a wait.